Vaccine Case Studies

TB Vaccine Global Market Assessment & Profitability Analysis

Situation

Aeras sought to do an in-depth vaccine landscape analysis examining all the vaccine candidates in its pipeline to gain increased transparency of analysis inputs to estimate the market size and profitability impact, and to assess eligibility for global health donor funding.

Aeras asked Applied Strategies to leverage its expertise in vaccine global market assessments and its rigorous decision analytic frameworks to determine whether the market was sufficiently attractive to preclude push-pull funding.

Contribution

•  Delivered a comprehensive and independent TB vaccine global market assessment
  • Vaccine need and potential market size and value
  • Potential and forecast demand
• Performed risk-adjusted NPV analyses for vaccines to determine market segment profitability
  • BCG replacement vaccines
  • Both initial vaccinations for BCG replacement and boosts for infant and adolescents vaccinated with BCG

Results

• Increased transparency of inputs and a better understanding of complexities of forecasting a developing-world vaccine
• Set the stage for more specific discussions between Aeras, BMGF, and suppliers on push-pull strategies

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